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1.3.15

Nigerian Stock Exchange: No reason To Panic

Nigeria economy "retains its ability to outperform SA" and other developed markets over the long term, despite the short-term pain investors are feeling in Nigeria, according to Johan Steyn, portfolio manager at Prescient Investment Management.

"In Nigeria, there’s been a rush for the door due to the falling oil price, the delayed election and security concerns," he said.

A weakened economy on the collapse of the oil price in the second half of 2014, and terrorism particularly in the north of the country, have dented Nigerian equities.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange all share index has lost 27% of its value over the past six months.

Among the biggest losers has been Tiger Brands’ Nigerian subsidiary Dangote Flour Mills (DFM), which has shed 53% over the same period.

DFM’s losses have been attributed to the plummeting Nigerian naira, competition and volatility and constrained liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

The sell-off of Nigerian stocks had been accompanied by a weakening currency, leaving many international investors more concerned about exchange rate losses than the underlying economy, Mr Steyn said.

Though oil accounted for 80% of Nigeria’s exports and 70% of state revenues, "the oil and gas sector accounts for only about 15% of the country’s GDP (gross domestic product)".

"So it is possible to have good economic growth, even with the lower oil price.

The very low level of external debt provides scope to finance fiscal shortfalls. "There’s no reason to panic and it certainly doesn’t make sense to sell now when so much bad news has already been priced in. The banking sector, for example, has taken a hammering and share prices are starting to look very attractive," Mr Steyn said.

Shoprite CEO Whitey Basson said last week the low oil price "has really caused a major upset in terms of the availability of dollars in places like Angola and Nigeria".

But while Nigeria relied on oil for revenues, the country already had "a strong local economy", particularly in the food market, Mr Basson said.

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