How will the Premier League pan out this season? The boffins at Football Manager think they know!
Which team will be disappointed? Which team will smile home with the coveted trophy? Which manager will play the blame game?
The team behind the successful management
Take a look at the 'final' Premier League tables and an explanation of how it was worked out, below:
Key Points:
· Despite back to back losses to Manchester City and Aston Villa, Chelsea recover to beat City to the title by three points.
· City suffer defeats to Stoke, Liverpool, Southampton and – perhaps most surprisingly – to QPR as they miss out on retaining their title.
· Manchester United finish third thanks to some improved performances in the second half of the season, despite losing to both Spurs and Liverpool.
· Southampton’s form is not quite as stunning as in the first half of the season, particularly against teams in the bottom half of the table, but they still secure a European place.
· At the bottom of the table, Leicester finish in bottom spot with Hull and Sunderland also finding themselves relegated to the Championship.
· Other notable results include a 3-1 City win in the Manchester Derby and a convincing 4-1 Arsenal win in the second North London Derby of the season.
· Despite back to back losses to Manchester City and Aston Villa, Chelsea recover to beat City to the title by three points.
· City suffer defeats to Stoke, Liverpool, Southampton and – perhaps most surprisingly – to QPR as they miss out on retaining their title.
· Manchester United finish third thanks to some improved performances in the second half of the season, despite losing to both Spurs and Liverpool.
· Southampton’s form is not quite as stunning as in the first half of the season, particularly against teams in the bottom half of the table, but they still secure a European place.
· At the bottom of the table, Leicester finish in bottom spot with Hull and Sunderland also finding themselves relegated to the Championship.
· Other notable results include a 3-1 City win in the Manchester Derby and a convincing 4-1 Arsenal win in the second North London Derby of the season.
Key Points:
· Manchester City pip Chelsea on goal difference by just a single goal in the tightest finish in top-flight history.
· Manchester United and Arsenal complete the top four.
· Tottenham and Liverpool fill the European places.
· At the bottom of the league, Sunderland agonisingly miss out on safety on goal difference after tying for points with both Leicester and Crystal Palace. West Brom and Hull finish below them, both tied on 29 points, but West Brom finish 20th on goal difference.
· The major transfers have varying impacts. Bony’s presence might seem to propel City towards the title, but it is in fact Aguero who scores most of their goals with Bony only netting four times at his new club (although Bafetembi Gomis enjoys the freedom of playing as a lone striker and his nine goals lift Swansea to an eighth place finish).
· Strootman provides a stabilising influence at United and Sissoko fulfils a similar role at Arsenal.
· Berahino’s departure from West Brom consigns them to relegation as they struggle to replace the goals that he brings to the team but his arrival at Spurs give them fifth place after he scores six in ten.
*Transfer Activity
Arsenal – In: Moussa Sissoko, Kristian Bielik
Aston Villa – In: Scott Sinclair, Carlos Gil
Chelsea – Out: Petr Cech
Crystal Palace – In: Yaya Sanogo
Everton – None
Hull – In: Callum McManaman
Leicester – In: Andrej Kramaric
Liverpool – In: Petr Cech
Man City – In: Wilfried Bony, Out: Scott Sinclair
Man United – In: Kevin Strootman
Newcastle – In: M’baye Niang, Out: Papiss Cisse, Moussa Sissoko
QPR – In: Yakubu
Southampton – None
Stoke – Out: Peter Crouch
Sunderland – In: Jermain Defoe, Out: Jozy Altidore
Swansea – In: Papiss Cisse, Out: Wilfried Bony
Tottenham – In: Saido Berahino, Out: Paulinho
West Brom – In: Peter Crouch, Out: Saido Berahino
West Ham – Out: Winston Reid
How They Did It…
"To ensure the simulations were as accurate as possible the team fully updated the Premier League and Championship seasons in Football Manager 2015 to reflect the events of the season so far in the real world.
"To begin with, this meant adding in the full set of results in both leagues up to and including New Year’s Day as well as the fully accurate set of remaining fixtures. The real-life injuries and suspensions for each of the 44 teams were then added to the simulation so that the virtual Wengers and Mourinhos would have the same squad selection dilemmas as their real-world counterparts.
"Next, all teams were updated with the loan and transfer deals that had gone through between Football Manager 2015’s release in November and January 1st. For the second ‘With Transfers’ simulation all confirmed loan and transfer deals up to and including January 16th were included, as were those potential transfers which have been heavily speculated about in national and regional media (see ‘Transfer Activity’).
"Finally, adjustments were made to individual player and team reputations, morale and abilities to reflect how they have performed in real life thus far this season – so players like Harry Kane, for example, received a slight boost in their ability stats whereas Wigan, who have been performing below expectations so far, were given a slightly lower ratings for morale and reputation.
"All this data was then loaded up into Football Manager 2015 and the season was run from January 1st in the ‘Without Transfers’ simulation and January 16th in the ‘With Transfers’ simulation. To ensure that the final league table was as accurate as could be, each set of fixtures was played through three times, with the most representative result taken for each game.
"The final results from each set of fixtures, as well as the goalscorers in each, were then collated to form the basis of the simulation."
· Manchester City pip Chelsea on goal difference by just a single goal in the tightest finish in top-flight history.
· Manchester United and Arsenal complete the top four.
· Tottenham and Liverpool fill the European places.
· At the bottom of the league, Sunderland agonisingly miss out on safety on goal difference after tying for points with both Leicester and Crystal Palace. West Brom and Hull finish below them, both tied on 29 points, but West Brom finish 20th on goal difference.
· The major transfers have varying impacts. Bony’s presence might seem to propel City towards the title, but it is in fact Aguero who scores most of their goals with Bony only netting four times at his new club (although Bafetembi Gomis enjoys the freedom of playing as a lone striker and his nine goals lift Swansea to an eighth place finish).
· Strootman provides a stabilising influence at United and Sissoko fulfils a similar role at Arsenal.
· Berahino’s departure from West Brom consigns them to relegation as they struggle to replace the goals that he brings to the team but his arrival at Spurs give them fifth place after he scores six in ten.
*Transfer Activity
Arsenal – In: Moussa Sissoko, Kristian Bielik
Aston Villa – In: Scott Sinclair, Carlos Gil
Chelsea – Out: Petr Cech
Crystal Palace – In: Yaya Sanogo
Everton – None
Hull – In: Callum McManaman
Leicester – In: Andrej Kramaric
Liverpool – In: Petr Cech
Man City – In: Wilfried Bony, Out: Scott Sinclair
Man United – In: Kevin Strootman
Newcastle – In: M’baye Niang, Out: Papiss Cisse, Moussa Sissoko
QPR – In: Yakubu
Southampton – None
Stoke – Out: Peter Crouch
Sunderland – In: Jermain Defoe, Out: Jozy Altidore
Swansea – In: Papiss Cisse, Out: Wilfried Bony
Tottenham – In: Saido Berahino, Out: Paulinho
West Brom – In: Peter Crouch, Out: Saido Berahino
West Ham – Out: Winston Reid
How They Did It…
"To ensure the simulations were as accurate as possible the team fully updated the Premier League and Championship seasons in Football Manager 2015 to reflect the events of the season so far in the real world.
"To begin with, this meant adding in the full set of results in both leagues up to and including New Year’s Day as well as the fully accurate set of remaining fixtures. The real-life injuries and suspensions for each of the 44 teams were then added to the simulation so that the virtual Wengers and Mourinhos would have the same squad selection dilemmas as their real-world counterparts.
"Next, all teams were updated with the loan and transfer deals that had gone through between Football Manager 2015’s release in November and January 1st. For the second ‘With Transfers’ simulation all confirmed loan and transfer deals up to and including January 16th were included, as were those potential transfers which have been heavily speculated about in national and regional media (see ‘Transfer Activity’).
"Finally, adjustments were made to individual player and team reputations, morale and abilities to reflect how they have performed in real life thus far this season – so players like Harry Kane, for example, received a slight boost in their ability stats whereas Wigan, who have been performing below expectations so far, were given a slightly lower ratings for morale and reputation.
"All this data was then loaded up into Football Manager 2015 and the season was run from January 1st in the ‘Without Transfers’ simulation and January 16th in the ‘With Transfers’ simulation. To ensure that the final league table was as accurate as could be, each set of fixtures was played through three times, with the most representative result taken for each game.
"The final results from each set of fixtures, as well as the goalscorers in each, were then collated to form the basis of the simulation."
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